2023 NHL Playoffs preview, picks

Not many people saw this one coming: Either the Carolina Hurricanes or Florida Panthers will represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup finals. 

While both Carolina and Florida were among the favorites to lift Lord Stanley’s Cup in the preseason, both teams were basically counted out in the days leading into the postseason for different reasons.

The Hurricanes were an elite team all season, but their biggest flaw was that they struggled to score consistently.

That problem was exacerbated by injuries to Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov.

The ’Canes looked to be out of gas — and scoring punch — when Svechnikov went down, and very few people thought Carolina would have enough left in the tank to navigate its way through the gauntlet it would face in the playoffs.

Hurricanes vs. Panthers series odds, preview, picks

But here the ’Canes are.

Florida, meanwhile, was not given a chance to do anything of note in the tournament for a different reason.

The Panthers needed every bit of their 82-game schedule to get into the dance, and their reward was a Round 1 tilt with the record-setting Boston Bruins.

The Cardiac Cats would erase a 3-1 deficit against the Bruins in a stunning result and then would upset the odds in a gentleman’s sweep over the favored Toronto Maple Leafs.

All of this adds up to Carolina and Florida meeting in a best-of-seven to see who goes to the finals. Bookmakers have tapped the Hurricanes as a -140 favorite to win the series.

I think those odds are fair, but I do believe there’s a way that bettors will be able to find value on the Panthers as this series goes on.

Carolina is an outlier in the NHL.

No team plays with the kind of commitment to an aggressive, man-to-man system like the Hurricanes do.

Most teams make adjustments as the series goes on, while the Canes stick to the bit and force you to figure them out.

It’s a difficult puzzle to solve. Just ask the Devils. 

It is likely that it takes some time for Florida to adjust to Carolina’s style of hockey, especially since it’s very different from what the Panthers just saw against the skill-over-everything Leafs.

On paper, Carolina’s lineup may not look intimidating, but when you watch the Hurricanes play you can see that every player on this roster knows his respective role.

It’s a powerful thing to have that kind of cohesion and it significantly raises the floor of any team — no matter the talent on the lineup card.

Betting on the NHL?

But I do trust Florida to be able to drag this series into the deep end of the pool.

The Panthers are a very fast, clinical offense that doesn’t need to tilt the ice to win hockey games.

The Cats are perfectly OK with a team owning the puck and pumping rubber at their net because they feel confident that they’ll convert enough of the chances they do create.

It’s a dangerous mix against a team like Carolina, which generates plenty of shot attempts but can struggle to make them count. 

The way I’m attacking this series is to wait on Game 1 and see if the Hurricanes — who have been dynamite at home over the past few postseasons — win.

At that point, I’ll back Florida in the hopes that the Cats will make the right adjustments to claw their way back into this series.

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